Replace Biden? Good Luck!
Lights! Cameras! WTF CATASTROPHE of epic proportions. WHAT... IN... THE... LITERAL... FUCK, JOE?
A snap presidential debate that his campaign wanted and now regrets shows Sleepy Old Joe in the flesh. Is that the real Joe Biden? Maybe, maybe not, but perception says yes.
Is it time for Joe Biden to go for a younger and energetic Democrat with fresh ideas to take on Donald Trump? On paper, absolute yes. The problem is... on paper... that it's a really good idea. Right?
Here is why replacing Biden on the ticket with somebody else might backfire on Democrats.
Have you ever heard of the 13 Keys?
Pre 1984, an election prediction model to predict U.S. presidential elections was created by an American University professor and historian, Allan Lichtman, with the help from a Russian meteorologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created the 13 Keys to the White House. According to Lichtman, elections are decided by governing, not not entirely by campaigning. Hence, the 13 Keys model focuses solely on the chances of electoral success of whatever party controls the White House.
The following keys are:
- Party mandate (midterm gains)
- No primary contest
- Incumbent seeking reelection
- No strong third-party
- A strong short-term economy
- A strong long-term economy
- Significant change of policy for the country
- No social unrest
- No scandal
- No foreign or military policy fails
- Significant foreign policy or military achievement
- Incumbent party candidate is charismatic
- Challenger party candidate is not charismatic
And get this, the 13 Keys system is the most accurate in predicting who would win a presidential election, only getting one wrong, which was the 2000 presidential election, but not for traditional reasons if you know how Bush "won" that election. The only way to defy the 13 Keys is to rig a presidential election, and George W. Bush is the only person in the history of the 13 Keys who has defied the 13 Keys, but not by winning the election.
But also get this, back in 2016, when everybody was so certain that Hillary Clinton would be President, the 13 Keys model disagreed and said Trump will be President, and to everyone's surprise, Trump won that election, and Allan Lichtman shouldn't have been too shocked, he said Trump would win the election, and he's a Democrat. A Democrat who accurately predicted the Democratic and Republican victors.
But what about Joe Biden?
The 13 Keys model has not yet predicted a winner for 2024, but there are Keys that Biden has won. The keys are the following:
- Key 2: No primary contest
- Key 3: Incumbency
- Key 5 and 6: a strong economy
- Key 7: changing the country's course on policy (e.l. Inflation Reduction Act, American Rescue Plan, Juneteenth as a national holiday, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, etc.)
- Key 9: No scandal (Republicans in Congress have failed to prove allegations of corruption against Biden and his family)
- And Key 13: an uncharismatic challenger (because Trump is not popular with a majority of Americans according to polling)
But the Keys model is leaning Biden, because he confirmly controls Keys 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 13, and he may win Keys 4 and 8, no strong third party and no social unrest, respectively. For third party, Robert F. Kennedy Jr is not on the ballot in all 50 states, and his polling is inconsistent, which doesn't match the criteria of the 13 Keys, which is 10%, which Kennedy often rises above and falls below frequently. And social unrest, the criteria must be a sustained and nationwide trend of social unrest, but occasionally violent pro-Palestinian protests have failed to meet that criteria because they're either rare, easily suppressed, or just don't last long.
In total, Biden wields the necessary number of Keys to be predicted the winner, and given that the 13 Keys model is spot on in all elections but one should make Biden very happy.
But what about replacing Biden? Well, in the perspective of Allan Lichtman, it might be a bad idea for the Democratic Party, because if Biden is removed from the Democratic ticket, then the Democrats have just thrown away Keys 2 and 3: no competition and a running incumbent, respectively. By throwing away Keys 2 and 3, the Democrats are now down to just 7 Keys, and that's bad. Because the Democrats have 6 Keys false against them, now winning 7 against 6 Keys may not be a flash for alarm, but candidates who lost 6 Keys always lose.
That means the Democrat who has replaced Biden will have 6 Keys false against him or her, that means according to Allan Lichtman and the 13 Keys model, that Democrat is a dead-on-arrival candidate against Donald Trump, therefore in that scenario, Donald J. Trump has won the 13 Keys model, and that means, he wins the White House. Replacing Biden might be a good idea in theory, but in practice, it's political suicide.
If Democrats lose in that scenario, then it will mean replacing Biden was all for nothing. If I were Biden, it will be my pleasure to tauntingly laugh my ass off at my very own party.
Competitive Conventions are not always a good thing
In a scenario where Joe Biden steps down, the 2024 Democratic National Convention will be the first major party convention since 1968 that somebody has won the nomination for President without competing in the primaries. Joe Biden will also be the first President since Lyndon B. Johnson to voluntarily step aside and let somebody else take the nomination.
But 1968 was an ugly election year for Democrats, and the 1968 Democratic National Convention did not make it any better for Democrats. Johnson stepped down because Democrats were so pissed at him over his escalation of the War in Vietnam and his embrace of civil rights. That sounds like Joe Biden and the War in Gaza, except Johnson sent U.S. troops to Vietnam, only to be brought home from a losing war in body bags, and apparently Johnson somehow believed that Americans don't mind fighting and dying in a losing war. He was clearly wrong.
The 1968 Democratic National Convention was so ugly. Anti-war protesters had all-out war with police and security forces who were deployed to safeguard the Democratic Convention, as the protesters tried to influence the party to not nominate Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who they saw as the heir apparent to Johnson. A police riot bled all over Chicago, which was where the Democrats had their convention. All cameras and News crews who were there to cover the Democratic Convention switched their attention to the riots outside the Convention, and how it looked for Democrats on TV undoubtedly haunted them in the 1968 presidential election. Humphrey was nominated, but for what? He lost over a riot outside his own party's convention.
As for the Democrats in 2024. A 2024 Democratic National Convention where there is no clear candidate but everybody competing each other for the top task of facing Trump, whether it's Vice President Kamala Harris, Governors Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzker, or even former First Lady Michelle Obama, who probably hates the media gossip about a presidential bid that she's not even interested in, will be wrenching each other for the nomination. It might turn ugly given the pro-Palestine protests try to influence Democrats to abandon Israel and nominate a pro-Palestine candidate who might even piss off the historically Democratic Party loyal Jewish American communities, especially in New York. It doesn't help too much that the 2024 Democratic Convention is in... Chicago.
VERY 1968 VIBES!
A Democratic Convention like that has the potential of embarrassing the Democratic Party for the 2024 election. If the Convention comes across as Democrats can't unite behind a candidate, or becomes too divided to nominate one on time, or vise versa, will make Democrats look unfit for governing.
A Democratic candidate who doesn't have the record like President Joe Biden does
Another problem for replacing Biden is what the Democrats would be throwing away. A President who accomplished more than people realize. For example:
- American Rescue Plan
- Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
- Inflation Reduction Act
- Making Juneteenth a federal holiday
- Codified marriage equality into federal law
- CHIPS and Science Act
- Lowered the price for prescription drugs for Medicare
- Bipartisan Safer Communities Act
- Pregnant Workers Fairness Act
When Democrats do replace Biden should it happen, they could replace him with a politician who has not done anything in his or her life, and Michelle Obama has no accomplishments to brag about the way First Lady Lady Bird Johnson had when she pressed Congress to enact the Highway Beautification Act in 1965, signed into law by her husband President Lyndon B. Johnson.
But it's not to say there wouldn't be Democrats who got things done before: Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Governor Gavin Newsom of California have records of accomplishments to proudly brag about what they did for their states, most especially Whitmer, for her leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic in her state, and passing legislation such as repealing a "right to work" law, increased education spending, regulated AI-generated ads, enhanced civil rights protections in Michigan, investments into renewable energy similar to Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, repealing the retirement tax, and so forth and so on.
But these are state laws. What have they done for the whole country the way Biden has done? Nothing.
Biden wins the presidential performance contest against his alternatives in a Reagan-style landslide. And Democrats certainly don't want to nominate a candidate who has no accomplishments at all or lacks any experience at getting things done just because that Democrat is way below 81 years old.
Voters want to know how can you deliver, and Biden absolutely can make that case, that he has delivered for the country, and he has the federal legislation that he signed with his writing hand to prove it.
Democratic alternatives don't poll better than Biden against Donald Trump
There is plenty of polls showing Democratic alternatives would actually struggle as hard as Biden in the polls, winning and losing polls by pluralities.
Not having the same accomplishments as Biden is another problem as laid out in the last header of this article.
The power of incumbency
If you're running for President, the last opponent you want is the President of the United States. A President losing reelection is a rare thing, especially in this day in age, Clinton cruised to reelection in 1996, Bush eked a second term in 2004, and Obama slammed his way to a second term in 2012.
The benefits of incumbency for a President seeking reelection are name recognition, notable accomplishments, the heavy backers, the heavy money, the heavier platform, compared to a challenger.
There are still benefits to a different Democratic candidate, though
The benefit of a different Democratic candidate is that it will be very hard for Donald Trump to blame inflation and the border crisis on a Democratic opponent who obviously had nothing to do with these problems because that Democratic opponent does not have the word "President" before his or her name. But Trump will try to tie that Democrat to Biden, but here's the problem, Democrats have been doing so well in elections under Biden, in spite of Biden, since Roe v. Wade was overturned, so tying that Democrat to Biden may not be as effective of a strategy as Trump would hope.
Then finally, debating, Trump will undoubtedly struggle so hard to debate a different Democratic candidate, especially on issues like abortion, social programs like child care, and vise versa.
In that situation, Trump would be praying to God for the very first time in his life that Biden reclaims the Democratic nomination.
Biden could still lose
Debates have wielded power over elections before. Michael Dukakis the Democrats' 1988 nominee for President said he would not execute the perpetrator of the rape and killing of his wife if God forbid had ever happened, that ultimately cost him the election to George H. W. Bush in a landslide. In 1992, during the first town hall debate in U.S. history with Clinton, Bush himself, and Perot, Bush repeatedly checked his watch on camera, which you can imagine left a bad impression on voters, and Bush was slammed out of office by Bill Clinton that year. Trump's verbally aggressive behavior in the first debate in 2020 confirmed his personal unlikability and the swing voters Trump needed to win went on to vote against him in November, costing Trump the election to Biden. So yeah, you ABSOLUTELY CAN lose an election because of a debate. But...
You can also lose a debate and still win anyway. In 2016, Trump got slaughtered in every presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, but did it matter in the end?
And Biden is not the first President to screw up his (no woman has become President when this was published) first debate, Trump's first debate in 2020 of course, but Obama lost his first debate as President in 2012, so did George W. Bush and his dad was unlucky. Reagan did a Joe Biden in 1984 but was less worse.
There might be theories of why, it could be the result of presidential stress, having to focus on running the country while seeking reelection at the same time, and this time, that stress really got to Bidenm plus a scratchy voice due to a Cold and the long known fact that he has a stutter.
Joe Biden can absolutely lose this election because of that debate, in fact, it actually may happen. What is also true is that Biden can at least stop the bleeding in the second debate on September 10, with the hope that he and his campaign take lessons and write down notes from that debate and figure out to do it right this time on September 10th. If Biden fails this time, maybe it is game over.
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