Pierre Poilievre will win the next federal election. Here's why!
August 17, 2024, I am predicting via my model, the Canadian Parliamentary Keys, that Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party of Canada, will win the next federal election likely to be held in October 2025.
Justin Trudeau rode a hell of a wave in 2015, leading the Liberal Party to a landslide victory in the 2015 federal election that ended the near-decade-long Conservative Party administration of Stephen Harper that was perceived as too old in worldview, and in his victory speech, Trudeau famously said "sunny ways". Trudeau won the 2015 election for the following reasons: he looked real good on TV, he was progressive, a Prime Minister's son, a symbol of youth.
Now, nearly ten years later, Canadians are now asking Trudeau: what sunny ways?
Canada is being plunged by an affordability crisis, housing is insanely expensive that Canadian houses cost more than houses in New York, Canadians now see Trudeau as an out-of-touch rich boy born with a silver spoon in his mouth, unaware of the everyday brutal realities the average Canadians are now having to go through. Just brutal down payments, bunkers high rent, grocery prices over the atmosphere, foodbanks saw a surge in usage, and more and more tent cities all over Canadian cities.
Justin Trudeau has been elected Prime Minister three times in 2015, 2019, and 2021. In 2021, Trudeau called the 2023 election early because he thought he was getting a rally 'round the flag boost in his popularity due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to be fair, he was, but that didn't mean Canadians want to be forced to exercise their patriotic duty while a pandemic is going on.
2021 did not result in a landslide victory for Trudeau, he repeated his 2019 performance. Ouch. But while he did saved his Prime Ministership from an Erin O'Toole wave in 2023, he paved the way for a Pierre Poilievre wave in 2025.
Pierre Poilievre became leader of the Conservative Party in 2022, running on an anti-establishment platform, but his record shows the opposite, but his ability to communicate is a talent the Trudeau Liberals and the left-wing overall greatly underestimated. The energy behind Poilievre is not like the one for Trudeau. Trudeau got elected because of vibes, but Poilievre is riding a wave of economic and political discontent, and the latter is a more powerful force, just ask Hillary Clinton.
What are the Keys
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| Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys that he uses to predict presidential elections. |
U.S. historian Allan Lichtman, alongside his collaborating partner Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created a system based on U.S. history and its role in presidential elections, called The 13 Keys to the White House. Lichtman tested his system on presidential elections 1860 to 1980, and successfully got all but two: 1876 and 1888, correct. Lichtman truly put his keys to the test when he predicted President Reagan's reelection in 1982, and Reagan did in fact won reelection.
From 1988 to 2020, with one exception: 2000, but that wasn't due to any traditional reasons, Lichtman successfully called all of these presidential elections. Even successfully predicting the 2016 presidential election for Donald Trump. In 2024, as of the publication of this piece, Lichtman is likely to predict that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against Trump.
The keys vote True or False based on the strength and performance of the White House before the presidential election. It takes 6 keys declared False to predict the White House party's defeat, and it takes 8 keys declared True to predict the White House party's reelection.
I was inspired to do the Keys strategy to foresee an incoming election result. For midterm elections, I have created The Midterm Keys, 12 Keys based on historical precedent that play a decisive role in determining the outcome of midterm elections. I took midterms from 1930 to 2022, and all but three were successfully predicted. Of the three, one was wrong and two were too close to call.
The Canadian Parliamentary Keys
I begin to work on creating a Keys election prediction system for Canadian elections. The Parliamentary Keys Canada, I have other Parliamentary Keys for other parliamentary countries. I have one for Britain and it works well on British elections.
The Parliamentary Keys work differently by country, meaning the Keys will not be the same because every country is different.
For Canada, I set up 13 Keys that I believe play a huge role in determining.
A majority government will provide a federal party the luxury to pass their significant agenda, Federal parties find it hard to get reelected to a fourth term. Canada is a de-facto two-party electoral system, the New Democratic Party takes left-of-centre voters from the Liberals, and the Canadian right felt the pain of multi-party splinters in the 1990s. The economy plays a key role in Canadian elections. Scandals can hurt. Social unrest can make the government look incompetent. Foreign policy and military conflicts involving Canada can have the impact. Charisma is something the Trudeau Prime Ministers understood.
The 2025 Federal Election Prediction
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| Prediction of the 2025 federal election via "keys" inspired by Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House. |
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are sitting on three parliamentary keys, with one leaning in their favor, and Poilievre holds 9 parliamentary keys against the Liberals, more than enough to win next October.
How bad is it for Liberals? Well, Allan Litchman said the Democrats could take a name out of a phone book and still steamroll the Republicans with it in the 2008 presidential election, he said that in 2007 or before, but in this case, the Liberals can replace Trudeau with the lord Jesus Christ himself and still get steamrolled in the 2025 election by the Conservatives, and I'm saying that in 2024.
The keys the Liberals lost are the following:
- Majority Government: because the Liberals failed to receive a majority in 2021.
- Below Three Terms In Government: because the Liberals won three federal elections.
- No Third Party: because Canada is a de-facto two-party state but with strong third parties.
- Strong Short-Term Economy: because Canada is struggling from the ground during election time.
- No Scandal: because the Trudeau government is notorious for several scandals.
- Global/Military Success: because Canada's global standing under Trudeau is weak.
- No Global/Military Mistakes: because of declining Canada-India relations and Yaroslav Hunka.
- Charismatic Prime Minister: because Justin Trudeau's brand has severely declined.
- Uncharismatic Opposition Leader: Pierre Poilievre is a charismatic speaker and campaigner.
Trudeau's only three keys that has won are the Strong Long-Term Economy Key because the Canadian economy is overall good and performing strong; the Major Policy Change Key because of the Liberal-NDP Dental and Pharmacare Deal and many programs; and No Social Unrest because there is no wave of riots and protests that spurred out of control.
The one Key that is shaky but leans Liberal is the No Interparty Challenge Key, because Trudeau hasn't faced an interparty challenge before the election, but he could still be pushed out if the Liberals lose more by-elections like the one in St. Paul.
The Liberal Party is declared dead on arrival and all they can do is delay their death as a government party.
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