Did the Social Unrest in response to George Floyd's murder screwed Trump for the 2020 election?
According to one historian, Allan Litchman, there are 13 factors that determines a President's fate or that of the party that holds the White House if the incumbent isn't running. Called the 13 Keys, and these keys, with the exception of 2000, accurately predicted winners of presidential election contests since 1984.
These keys are the following:
- Party mandate
- Incumbent President seeking reelection
- An uncontested primary
- No serious third party
- Strong long term economy
- Strong short term economy
- Significant domestic policy change
- No scandals
- No social unrest
- A successful foreign policy and military operation
- No international and military mistakes
- Charisma of the incumbent party
- Lack of charisma of the challenger party
In 1968, the foreign/military policy keys, primary contest key, third party key, and social unrest key would not be friendly to President Lyndon B. Johnson, and they sure weren't friendly to the Democrats in the end, it didn't help that Democrats lost a key too, the one where the sitting president is seeking reelection when President Johnson dropped out on March 31, 1968.
That actually should be a warning to Democrats who don't want Biden to run, because as it happened to Democrats in 1968 when LBJ stepped aside, so to Democrats who don't want Biden to run: you may think that a scenario where Biden steps aside helps you, but that's in theory, in practice, you're a sacrificing a key, further weakening yourself for the 2024 election, in other words, getting Biden out of the race will backfire.
In 1976, the keys that would not help the Republicans so much were foreign/military policy (Fall of Saigon), scandals (Watergate), the economy keys (stagflation and energy crisis), a primary challenge (Ronald Reagan) candidate charisma (Ford was not so charismatic), and Carter's charisma may be under debate, but it was clear that Democrats had the ultimate advantage when it comes to the keys for the White House, only for the keys to turn on the Democrats in 1980.
Republicans tried hard to make Hunter Biden's controversies a scandal for his father Joe Biden, even trying to impeach him over Hunter Biden, but Republicans failed time and time again to link President Biden to his son's miscomings, often at the expense of the very taxpayer they claim to care about.
1968 and 1976 were examples of candidates or incumbent parties have a disadvantage in the keys.
So what about 2020?
Well, Donald Trump may have had an advantage at the start in the thirteen keys to the White House: a strong economy, social peace, Trump is absolutely running for reelection and nobody's gonna beat an incumbent with over 90% approval amongst his party in a primary, then came COVID, when a pandemic bulldozed a strong economy by forcing lockdowns to prevent more infections that would certainly derail the U.S. healthcare industry, but that's not the ultimate blow to Trump's key advantage, what truly finished Trump is the reaction to the killing of George Floyd, resulting in social unrest, thus turning this key against Trump, making his defeat a forgone conclusion: the Key: no social unrest. That summer 2020, when at least one of the economy keys could've changed in his favor, or Trump still had a narrow advantage in the keys had George Floyd not been killed, but when Floyd was killed by police who were arresting him, and people on the sidewalk recorded the incident and spread like wildfire on social media, provoking an angry reaction who in reality just wanted an excuse to go outside in a pandemic-restricted world, Trump lost the Social Unrest key.
Before George Floyd died, Trump had 7-6 keys in his favor (meaning he had 7 true keys) despite a crippled economy thanks to COVID, but after Floyd died, one key turned on Trump, putting him at a disadvantage 6-7 keys in his favor, and the outcome was highly predictable: he lost.
Trump, throughout his entire presidency, had been sabotaging his own bid for reelection with his scandals, but bad luck turned the last key, so part of it is Trump's fault, had he been a President with integrity, the scandal key would've been friendly despite both COVID and George Floyd.
In 2024, the keys lean Biden, even though polls and pundits are telling a completely different story about his reelection prospects, such as progressive discontent with Biden over Gaza, student loan forgiveness, and age, and his perceived lacking of a progressive record of accomplishments, also most Americans think the economy is in shambles, and increased thirst for a third party, this would make you think that the keys would be unfriendly to Biden by now, but Allan Litchman warned on CNN recently that polls are only a snapshot, and he actually predicted Trump would win the 2016 election despite the polls and the fact that the economy was strong under a lame-duck Democratic administration in the White House that was actually gaining popularity for the first time since they were reelected.
So why isn't Trump winning the Thirteen Keys race against Biden? For starters, both Biden and Trump are not charismatic men, and there are plenty of instances of Trump not at his charismatic best as he was in 2016, well, only amongst Republicans, who are actually the minority of Americans, as are Democrats, they are separated by Independents who swing back and forth for one of the two parties. Biden is actually presiding over a strong economy despite how Americans feel, inflation is not as worse as it was in 2022, and the stock market is relatively stable; there were some tickles though, alongside inflation, there were banking failures in 2023, but it was quickly resolved, unlike in 2008 and 1929, which helped Barack Obama and Franklin D. Roosevelt, respectively, in their elections against incumbent and unpopular Republican administrations. Biden is running for reelection, a key that is also adding to Biden's advantage in the keys, Democrats didn't want Biden to seek reelection, but Biden not running actually would've hurt Democrats in their performance in the keys, just ask the Democrats of President Lyndon B. Johnson.
Trump can also screw the 2024 presidential election for himself, just like the Republicans screwed the 2022 midterm elections for themselves by running terrible candidates in swing states, especially in the midst of the aftermath of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and backlash against "election denialism" the Republican response to Biden's victory in 2020, which played a big role in the January 6 insurrection against Congress certifying Biden's win.
On the issues, Trump is skittish on abortion, he does not want to talk about because he saw what happens to Republicans when they talk about abortion in the post-Roe era, and Trump is scared to take the lashes of public opinion on abortion, and like the Republicans of 2022, Trump screams all the problems under Biden, but either comes up with unrealistic solutions or no solutions at all.
Trump may have the polls, barely, but he may not have the necessary seven keys to at least narrowly put an end to the Biden administration, whose reelection is standing on vulnerable shaky ground, even the 13 Keys is saying Biden is on tricky turf, but if Biden can keep the number of keys he has to win from lean true to absolute true, then Trump is in for some karma, where it is he, not Hillary Clinton, lost an election despite the polls, and the only good news for Trump is that Hillary Clinton is the only person who knows how it's like to stand in Trump's shoes as he faces an unexpected defeat that shocks the world.
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